Ranked comparison
Solar payback period by state
Every state ranked by estimated simple payback for a typical 8 kW purchased system: system cost divided by first-year savings, with self-consumed electricity valued at the assumed retail rate, exports valued conservatively, and no federal credit (the 25D credit ended for installs after 2025). Assumptions last reviewed September 2026.
| # | State | Est. payback | Electricity rate | Year-one savings (8 kW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawaii | 5–7 yrs | $0.42/kWh | $4,374 |
| 2 | California | 7–9 yrs | $0.31/kWh | $3,086 |
| 3 | Connecticut | 10–12 yrs | $0.29/kWh | $2,332 |
| 4 | Massachusetts | 10–13 yrs | $0.30/kWh | $2,294 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 10–13 yrs | $0.28/kWh | $2,270 |
| 6 | New Hampshire | 10–13 yrs | $0.28/kWh | $2,178 |
| 7 | Arizona | 10–14 yrs | $0.16/kWh | $1,814 |
| 8 | Maine | 11–14 yrs | $0.27/kWh | $2,118 |
| 9 | New York | 11–15 yrs | $0.25/kWh | $1,945 |
| 10 | New Mexico | 11–15 yrs | $0.15/kWh | $1,681 |
| 11 | Nevada | 12–15 yrs | $0.15/kWh | $1,651 |
| 12 | Texas | 12–15 yrs | $0.16/kWh | $1,598 |
| 13 | Alabama | 12–17 yrs | $0.16/kWh | $1,477 |
| 14 | Colorado | 13–17 yrs | $0.16/kWh | $1,572 |
| 15 | Florida | 13–17 yrs | $0.15/kWh | $1,463 |
| 16 | New Jersey | 13–17 yrs | $0.19/kWh | $1,578 |
| 17 | Maryland | 13–18 yrs | $0.18/kWh | $1,543 |
| 18 | Pennsylvania | 14–18 yrs | $0.18/kWh | $1,448 |
| 19 | Vermont | 14–18 yrs | $0.21/kWh | $1,592 |
| 20 | Washington, D.C. | 14–18 yrs | $0.18/kWh | $1,543 |
| 21 | Delaware | 14–18 yrs | $0.17/kWh | $1,479 |
| 22 | Michigan | 14–18 yrs | $0.19/kWh | $1,453 |
| 23 | Georgia | 15–19 yrs | $0.14/kWh | $1,292 |
| 24 | Kansas | 15–19 yrs | $0.14/kWh | $1,338 |
| 25 | Mississippi | 15–19 yrs | $0.14/kWh | $1,274 |
| 26 | South Carolina | 15–20 yrs | $0.14/kWh | $1,292 |
| 27 | Wisconsin | 15–20 yrs | $0.17/kWh | $1,367 |
| 28 | Alaska | 15–20 yrs | $0.25/kWh | $1,566 |
| 29 | Ohio | 15–20 yrs | $0.16/kWh | $1,266 |
| 30 | Indiana | 15–20 yrs | $0.15/kWh | $1,266 |
| 31 | Illinois | 16–20 yrs | $0.16/kWh | $1,339 |
| 32 | Oklahoma | 16–21 yrs | $0.12/kWh | $1,163 |
| 33 | North Carolina | 16–21 yrs | $0.13/kWh | $1,183 |
| 34 | Virginia | 16–22 yrs | $0.14/kWh | $1,227 |
| 35 | Arkansas | 16–22 yrs | $0.13/kWh | $1,165 |
| 36 | Iowa | 17–22 yrs | $0.14/kWh | $1,200 |
| 37 | Missouri | 17–22 yrs | $0.13/kWh | $1,157 |
| 38 | Tennessee | 17–22 yrs | $0.13/kWh | $1,148 |
| 39 | Utah | 17–22 yrs | $0.12/kWh | $1,147 |
| 40 | Minnesota | 17–22 yrs | $0.15/kWh | $1,236 |
| 41 | South Dakota | 17–22 yrs | $0.13/kWh | $1,174 |
| 42 | West Virginia | 17–23 yrs | $0.14/kWh | $1,154 |
| 43 | Kentucky | 17–23 yrs | $0.13/kWh | $1,114 |
| 44 | Louisiana | 17–23 yrs | $0.12/kWh | $1,092 |
| 45 | Nebraska | 18–23 yrs | $0.12/kWh | $1,092 |
| 46 | Wyoming | 18–24 yrs | $0.12/kWh | $1,123 |
| 47 | Oregon | 19–25 yrs | $0.14/kWh | $1,071 |
| 48 | Montana | 19–25 yrs | $0.12/kWh | $1,052 |
| 49 | Idaho | 20–26 yrs | $0.11/kWh | $1,001 |
| 50 | North Dakota | 21–28 yrs | $0.11/kWh | $957 |
| 51 | Washington | 25–33 yrs | $0.12/kWh | $831 |
Which state has the fastest solar payback?
Under our assumptions, Hawaii pays back fastest — roughly 5–7 years for a typical 8 kW system — driven by its combination of electricity price ($0.42/kWh assumed), sunshine, and installed cost.
What is a good solar payback period?
Panels are typically warrantied for 25 years, so a simple payback under 10 years is generally considered strong, 10–15 years moderate, and beyond 15 years marginal — before accounting for financing costs, rate inflation, or home-value effects.
Did solar payback get worse in 2026?
Yes, for purchased systems. The 30% federal residential credit (Section 25D) ended for systems installed after December 31, 2025, which lengthens simple payback by roughly 30–40% versus an identical 2025 install. State incentives and falling equipment prices partially offset this in some markets.
What actually determines payback?
Four things dominate: your utility rate, how much of the solar you use directly (self-consumption), what the utility pays for exported electricity, and the installed price you negotiate. Two neighbors on different rate plans can see very different paybacks from identical systems.
Simple payback ignores financing interest, rate escalation, degradation, maintenance and incentives other than the (now-ended) federal credit — real results vary. See methodology.